A homeowner types "plumber near me" into Google. For years, that query triggered the local pack, the three-business map listing at the top of the page. Ranking in that pack was the whole game.
A 2026 study from Whitespark changes the picture. They audited local-business-type queries across Google and found that AI Overviews appear for 68% of local searches. Local packs show up for only 39% of the same queries. That is a 29-point gap where Google is giving customers an AI-generated answer instead of, or in addition to, the map results that trades businesses have spent years trying to rank in.
The study was published by Whitespark, a local SEO agency that has been auditing local search results since before AI Overviews existed. Their methodology tracked thousands of queries across categories including home services, legal, healthcare, and retail. The full breakdown is on their blog.
For trades businesses, plumbers, HVAC contractors, electricians, roofers, the implications are specific. The search behavior that used to funnel homeowners toward the local pack is now splitting. Simple transactional queries like "plumber near me" still lean heavily on the map pack. But informational and hybrid queries, the ones homeowners ask before they are ready to call, are going to AI Overviews almost every time.
What the 68% number actually means
Whitespark did not find that AI Overviews replaced local packs. They found that AI Overviews appear more often, and in more query types, than the local pack does. The two can appear on the same results page, or one can appear without the other.
The breakdown by query type tells the story:
Informational queries like "how long does a water heater last" trigger AI Overviews 92% of the time, according to Whitespark. Hybrid-intent queries like "average cost of water heater replacement in Bergen County" hit 97%. Simple transactional queries like "plumber near me" still default mostly to the local pack, though AI Overviews are starting to appear there too.
This means a homeowner asking "my AC is making a loud noise, should I call someone" gets an AI Overview. A homeowner asking "what causes low water pressure in an old house" gets an AI Overview. A homeowner asking "plumber Clifton NJ" gets the local pack. The first two queries are the ones where a trades business establishes trust before the customer is ready to pick up the phone. Those are now in AI Overview territory.
Search Engine Journal covered the same data and drew the same conclusion: businesses that rank well in the traditional local pack are "completely invisible in AI-generated answers for the exact same queries." Ranking in the local pack and being cited in an AI Overview are two different things, and the gap between them is widening.
The divergence between ranking and being cited
Everything-PR Research published a Google AI Overviews Citation Source Index in June 2026 based on analysis of over 3 million queries. They found that only 38% of pages cited by AI Overviews also appear in the top 10 organic search results for the same query. Six months earlier, that overlap was 76%.
In other words, the connection between ranking well and being cited by AI is getting weaker. A page can rank page one on Google and never appear in an AI Overview. A page can appear in an AI Overview without ranking in the top 10.
This is the same pattern the 5WPR HVAC and Plumbing AI Visibility Index found when they tested 65-plus prompts across five AI engines. Independent contractors with the highest local Google reviews were absent from AI answers. The AI engines were picking different signals than the ones Google's local pack uses.
For a trades business, the practical translation is this: the SEO work that got you into the local pack is necessary but no longer sufficient. The signals that make an AI Overview cite your business are related but not identical.
What Google says about how to get cited
On May 15, 2026, Google Search Central published a guide called "Optimizing your website for generative AI features on Google Search." It is Google's first on-record statement about what helps a business appear in AI Overviews and AI Mode.
The guide makes several points that matter for trades businesses:
Google says optimizing for AI features is still SEO. There is no separate algorithm, no secret file format, and no shortcut. The fundamentals that help a page rank, technical health, clear structure, useful content, are the same fundamentals that help a page get cited.
Google specifically calls out "non-commodity content" as the strongest signal. Content that reflects first-hand experience, genuine expertise, and a unique point of view is what AI Overviews prefer to cite. Generic, templated service pages are the content most likely to be replaced by an AI summary rather than cited as its source.
Google says businesses do not need an llms.txt file or special AI-focused rewrites. A well-organized page with clear information is already readable by Google's AI systems. The company also confirmed that its existing spam policies, including those covering scaled content abuse, apply fully to AI Overviews. Trying to game an AI citation carries the same risk as trying to game a traditional ranking.
For local businesses specifically, Google's guide points to Google Business Profile accuracy, reviews, and location-specific detail as key inputs. A complete, current, actively managed profile is one of the most impactful things a trades business can control.
Content freshness is a signal AI Overviews weight
Ahrefs analyzed 17 million AI citations and found that AI-cited content is, on average, 25.7% fresher than content that ranks traditionally but does not get cited. Google's AI systems treat recent content as evidence that a business is active.
For a trades business, this means a Google Business Profile with posts from this month, a website with a blog updated regularly, and new photos on directory listings all feed the freshness signal. A listing claimed once and never updated looks abandoned to AI. Content freshness is not the biggest factor in AI visibility, but it is one of the easiest to maintain once it is set up.
What trades businesses should do right now
Based on the Whitespark data, Google's official guidance, and the Everything-PR citation index, here is the priority list for a trades business that wants to show up in AI Overviews:
- Complete every field on your Google Business Profile. Services, hours, service area cities, attributes, business description. This is the single most impactful action.
- Add LocalBusiness schema to your website. Schema-marked pages get cited 2.3 times more often.
- Respond to every review. AI-generated review summaries now pull from the substance of what customers write, not just star ratings. Engagement on reviews signals an active, attentive business.
- Publish content only your business could write. Cost guides grounded in your actual local pricing, real project examples, answers to the specific questions your customers ask in person. Google calls this "non-commodity content" and it is the strongest signal for AI citation.
- Keep your business information consistent everywhere. Google, Bing, Yelp, Angi, industry directories. Inconsistent NAP across directories is the most common reason independent contractors are invisible to AI.
- Update your Google Business Profile weekly. New photos, new posts, seasonal service reminders. Freshness is a signal AI Overviews weight.
- Monitor whether your business appears in AI Overviews for your services in your area. Grounding drift means your visibility can shift week to week without any change on your end.
The 12 to 18 month window
Search Engine Journal's analysis concluded that AI-driven local search is still in its early stages. The systems are building their indexes of trusted local sources. There is a real window, probably 12 to 18 months, to establish a business as a go-to citation source before competitors figure out what is happening.
The businesses that move now and consistently publish structured, local, entity-aligned content will build citation authority that compounds. The ones waiting for the dust to settle will spend years catching up to whoever claimed their niche first.
FAQ
Do AI Overviews replace the local pack for trades businesses?
No. AI Overviews and local packs appear on the same results page for many queries. Whitespark found that AI Overviews appear for 68% of local searches while local packs appear for 39%. The overlap is partial. Simple "near me" queries still lean on the local pack. Informational and hybrid queries, which are the ones where customers research before calling, go to AI Overviews much more often.
How is being cited in an AI Overview different from ranking in the local pack?
Ranking in the local pack depends on proximity, review volume, and keyword relevance. Being cited in an AI Overview depends on whether Google's AI can confirm your business across multiple sources, parse your structured data, and find content on your site that directly answers the question being asked. Everything-PR found that only 38% of AI Overview citations also appear in the top 10 organic results, down from 76% six months earlier. The two systems are related but increasingly independent.
What is the fastest way to get cited in AI Overviews for a trades business?
Complete your Google Business Profile with every available field, add LocalBusiness schema to your website, and publish content that answers specific local questions with real pricing and project detail. Google's official guide says "non-commodity content" reflecting genuine expertise is the strongest signal for AI citation. Generic service pages do not get cited.
Does adding schema markup actually help with AI Overviews?
Yes. The Everything-PR Citation Source Index analyzed over 3 million AI Overview citations and found that schema-marked pages are cited 2.3 times more often than pages without structured data. LocalBusiness schema is the most relevant type for trades businesses because it gives Google's AI a clean data source for your name, services, location, and hours.
Will AI Overviews eventually replace traditional search results for trades businesses?
Google has stated explicitly that AI features do not replace traditional search results. The new search box leads more people into AI-generated answers, but classic results still appear on the page. The shift is that the AI Overview appears first, which means a customer might get their answer, your hours, your rating, your service area without clicking through to your website. That makes your Google Business Profile, not just your website, the surface that does the selling.
Run your free AI visibility audit to see whether your trades business shows up in AI Overviews for your services in your area. The audit checks 12 signals across ChatGPT, Gemini, and Perplexity and flags exactly what to fix.