A 2026 study by 5WPR ran 65 HVAC and plumbing prompts through ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Gemini, and Google AI Overviews. The results found that 87% of independent HVAC and plumbing contractors in the United States have effectively zero AI citation share in their own metro and category. When a homeowner asks ChatGPT "who do I call for a broken furnace" or asks Gemini "best plumber near me," independent contractors do not appear in the answer, regardless of how many five-star reviews they have.
The study, called the HVAC and Plumbing AI Visibility Index, ranked the top 25 brands by citation share across all five AI engines during Q1 2026. The top of the list was dominated by national franchise networks: Roto-Rooter at 11.5% citation share, ARS/Rescue Rooter at 5.5%, Mr. Rooter at 4.8%, One Hour Heating and Air at 3.0%, and Benjamin Franklin Plumbing at 2.8%. These franchise brands collectively appear in 25 to 30% of "service near me" trade prompts, despite representing under 5% of actual contractors in the United States.
The remaining independent contractors, roughly 200,000 of them, are competing for the leftovers.
Why Franchise Brands Win AI Citations
The 5WPR report identifies a specific mechanism: AI engines weight entity-strength signals more heavily than local proximity or local review volume. Entity-strength signals include Wikipedia pages, Wikidata records, structured-data markup on company websites, parent-company SEC filings, and national press coverage. National franchise networks have all of these, while most independent contractors have none.
Roto-Rooter, founded in 1935, has a Wikipedia page with detailed corporate history, a publicly traded parent company (Chemed Corporation), and 600+ franchise locations that generate consistent press coverage. An independent plumber with 800 five-star Google reviews in a single metro has a Google Business Profile, a website, and maybe a Yelp page. The AI engines see Roto-Rooter's entity footprint and route the citation there. They do not see the independent plumber because the independent plumber lacks the entity signals that trigger AI citation.
This is the core finding: local reputation and local review volume do not translate into AI visibility. The signals that AI engines use to decide who to recommend are structural and national, not local and merit-based.
The Citation Share Problem in Numbers
The 5WPR study tracked 65 prompts across five AI engines and measured which brands appeared in the AI-generated answers. Here is what the citation surface looks like:
- ServiceTitan (contractor software): 14.0% citation share
- Roto-Rooter (plumbing franchise): 11.5%
- ARS/Rescue Rooter (HVAC and plumbing): 5.5%
- Mr. Rooter (plumbing franchise): 4.8%
- Housecall Pro (contractor software): 4.2%
- Service Experts (HVAC): 3.8%
- Jobber (contractor software): 3.4%
The top 15 brands account for approximately 66% of all citations. The remaining 34% is split across ranks 16 through 25, regional brands, and the small minority of independent contractors who occasionally break into citations. Roughly 200,000 independent contractors are competing for less than 34% of the citation surface, and most of them get nothing.
Ronn Torossian, founder of 5WPR and the report's author, framed it bluntly: "HVAC and plumbing is the most acute version of the citation-consolidation crisis we have measured. There are 230,000 contractors in the U.S. and only 50 of them have meaningful AI citation share."
What Independent Contractors Can Do About It
The problem is structural, but it is not hopeless. The same signals that franchise brands use to dominate AI citations are available to independent contractors, just at a smaller scale. Here is what moves the needle.
Build Entity Signals, Not Just Local Signals
A Google Business Profile is a local signal. A Wikipedia page, a Wikidata entry, and structured-data markup on your website are entity signals. AI engines use both, but they weight entity signals more heavily when deciding who to cite. Independent contractors can build entity signals by adding LocalBusiness schema to their website, creating a Wikidata entry for their business, securing listings on high-authority directories, and getting coverage in trade publications.
ACHR News, Contracting Business, and Plumbing and Mechanical are the trade publications that anchor the HVAC and plumbing citation surface, according to the 5WPR report. An independent contractor who gets mentioned in one of these publications earns more citation weight than one who is mentioned in a local newspaper.
Write Specific, Structured Content on Your Website
AI engines read your website to understand what you do and where you do it. A plumber whose website says "full service plumbing" gives the AI nothing to cite. A plumber whose website has a dedicated page for "tankless water heater installation in Teaneck, NJ" with service details, pricing context, and a service area map gives the AI something specific to reference in its answer.
Google's AI Overviews now pull directly from your website and Google Business Profile, so the content on your site directly shapes what the AI says about you.
Get Listed on the Directories AI Engines Read
The 5WPR report notes that AI engines draw citations from across the web, not just from your website. Yelp, Angi, HomeAdvisor, the Better Business Bureau, and trade-specific directories all feed AI engines. An independent contractor with a complete profile on five directories has more citation surface than one with a Google Business Profile and nothing else.
ChatGPT specifically relies on training data that includes directory listings and review sites. A business that does not appear in the directories ChatGPT reads will not appear in its answers, no matter how good its Google ranking is.
Be Consistent Everywhere
Name, address, phone number, hours, services, and service area need to match across every platform. Google Business Profile, Apple Business Connect, Yelp, Angi, your website, and every directory listing. AI engines verify your business by cross-referencing sources. Inconsistent data across sources tells the AI your information may be wrong, and wrong information does not get cited.
Produce Content Regularly
AI engines favor active businesses. A website that publishes a new blog post every month, a Google Business Profile that posts photos of completed jobs weekly, and a steady flow of new reviews all signal an active business. A website that has not been updated in two years and a profile with no recent activity signal the opposite. Fresh content gives the AI fresh material to cite.
The Gap Is Closing, but Slowly
The 5WPR report notes that the window for independent contractors to build AI citation share is open but closing. "The brands that win HVAC and plumbing AI citation in the next twelve months will define which contractor every American homeowner under 50 calls when their water heater fails," the report states.
The citation patterns that AI engines establish now tend to reinforce themselves. A business that gets cited today is more likely to be cited tomorrow because the AI has seen it before and treats it as a known entity. An independent contractor that starts building entity signals now has a better chance of breaking into the citation surface than one who waits until the patterns have solidified around the franchise brands.
The contractors who act on this in 2026 will be the ones who show up when a homeowner asks ChatGPT for a plumber. The ones who wait will keep losing calls to Roto-Rooter, regardless of how many five-star reviews they have.
FAQ
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What percentage of independent contractors are invisible in AI search?
According to 5WPR's 2026 HVAC and Plumbing AI Visibility Index, 87% of independent HVAC and plumbing contractors have effectively zero AI citation share in their own metro and category, meaning they do not appear in AI-generated answers when homeowners search for local contractors.
Why do franchise brands dominate AI search results for contractors?
AI engines weight entity-strength signals like Wikipedia pages, Wikidata records, structured-data markup, parent-company SEC filings, and national press coverage. National franchise brands have these signals. Most independent contractors do not, regardless of their local reputation or review count.
How can an independent contractor improve their AI visibility?
Build entity signals: add LocalBusiness schema to your website, create a Wikidata entry, get listed on high-authority directories, secure coverage in trade publications, keep information consistent across all platforms, and produce fresh content regularly.
Do Google reviews help with AI search visibility?
Google reviews are a local signal, but AI engines weight entity-strength signals more heavily. The 5WPR study found that an independent plumber with 800+ five-star reviews produced less citation surface than a franchise location with 50 reviews in the same metro, because the franchise had stronger entity signals.
What is the 5WPR HVAC and Plumbing AI Visibility Index?
It is a 2026 research report by 5WPR that ran 65 HVAC and plumbing prompts through ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Gemini, and Google AI Overviews, tracking which brands appeared in the AI-generated answers and measuring their citation share across all five engines.
Run your free AI visibility audit to see whether your trades business appears in AI answers across ChatGPT, Gemini, Perplexity, Siri, and Google AI Overviews.