For years, the advice was simple: rank on page one of Google and the customers will find you. New data from Ahrefs (March 2026) suggests that logic is breaking down for AI search.

Ahrefs analyzed 863,000 keyword SERPs and 4 million AI Overview URLs. The finding: only 38% of pages cited in AI Overviews also rank in Google's top 10 for the same query. That number was 76% in July 2025. It has been cut roughly in half in eight months.

The implication for trades businesses is direct. A page that answers "how much does it cost to replace a water heater in Bergen County" can get cited in a Google AI Overview even if it does not rank in the top 10 for "water heater replacement cost." AI Overviews are pulling from a much wider pool than the traditional SERP.

What the Data Shows

Ahrefs published its updated analysis in March 2026, revisiting a study from July 2025 that found 76% of AI Overview citations came from pages ranking in Google's top 10. The update doubled the dataset and refined the parsing methodology.

The current breakdown:

  • 37.1% of AI Overview citations rank in the top 10 (organic links only)
  • 26.2% rank in positions 11 through 100
  • 36.7% do not rank in Google's top 100 at all

When Ahrefs filtered to include all SERP features (ads, featured snippets, video packs, People Also Ask), the top-10 figure rose slightly to 37.9%. The conclusion held either way: most AI Overview citations now come from pages outside the traditional top 10.

Search Engine Journal reported the same pattern. BrightEdge found an even lower figure in February 2026: only 17% of AI Overview citations came from pages in the organic top 10 when using a different methodology. Omnibound AI's analysis put the range between 62% and 83% of AI Overview citations coming from pages outside the top 10, depending on how "top 10" is defined.

The direction is consistent across every study. Ranking in Google's top 10 is becoming a weaker predictor of getting cited in AI Overviews.

Why This Is Happening: Query Fan-Out

Google confirmed in its developer documentation that AI Overviews use a technique called "query fan-out." When a user searches and AI is triggered, the system splits the initial query into multiple related sub-queries. Pages that appear most frequently across those sub-query SERPs get cited in the AI Overview.

Ahrefs attributes part of the shift to Gemini 3, which began powering AI Overviews in January 2026. The newer model appears to expand queries more aggressively than earlier Gemini variants, pulling from related SERPs where fewer pages rank for the original query.

For a trades business, this means the content that gets cited is not always the page that ranks highest for the exact keyword. It is the page that best answers a related question in the fan-out chain. A plumber's blog post about "what causes low water pressure in older homes" might get cited in an AI Overview for "plumber near me" because the fan-out expanded the query into related sub-topics where that page ranks.

YouTube Emerges as a Citation Source

Among AI Overview citations that did not rank in Google's top 100 for the same keyword, 18.2% were YouTube URLs. YouTube accounted for 5.6% of all AI Overview citations in the dataset.

Ahrefs Brand Radar data shows YouTube is now the most cited domain in AI Overviews and has grown 34% over the last six months. Ahrefs' separate study on AI visibility correlations found a 0.74 correlation between YouTube mentions and AI visibility, compared to 0.664 for branded web mentions and 0.218 for backlinks.

For contractors, this means a YouTube video explaining a common repair or showing a job site can earn AI Overview citations even when the business website does not rank for the head keyword. Video content is a citation source that most trades competitors are not producing.

What This Means for Trades Businesses

The traditional playbook was: build backlinks, optimize for the exact keyword, rank in the top 3. That playbook still matters for Google Maps and the local pack, where 35.9% of local businesses appear (SOCi 2026 Local Visibility Index). But for AI Overviews, the playbook has shifted.

The new approach:

  1. Write answer-shaped content. Pages that directly answer specific questions get cited regardless of ranking position. "How much does a sump pump replacement cost in Passaic County" beats "sump pump replacement" for AI Overview citations because the fan-out finds the answer-shaped page.
  2. Cover related sub-topics. The fan-out technique means AI Overviews cite pages from related queries, not just the exact match. A page about "common causes of basement flooding in North Jersey" can earn citations in AI Overviews for "plumber near me" or "water damage repair."
  3. Produce YouTube content. Video is the fastest-growing citation source in AI Overviews. A short video showing a drain cleaning or HVAC inspection can earn citations that the website alone cannot.
  4. Keep the Google Business Profile complete. Google confirmed that GBP and Merchant Center data feed into AI Overviews. A complete profile with photos, services, and service area increases the chance of being cited in local AI Overviews.
  5. Do not abandon ranking work. 38% of citations still come from the top 10. The overlap is shrinking but not gone. Traditional SEO still contributes. The point is that it is no longer the only path.

The Trades-Specific Advantage

Most AI visibility content targets software companies, ecommerce brands, or multi-location chains. Trades businesses have an advantage that almost no one is exploiting: specificity. A plumber in Bergen County who writes about the exact water pressure problems common in 1970s Bergen County homes is producing the type of hyper-local, answer-shaped content that query fan-out surfaces.

Generic directory pages do not answer those questions. Angi and HomeAdvisor list categories, not specific conditions. A contractor's own website, with pages that answer the specific questions homeowners in their area actually ask, is the type of content that AI Overviews cite from outside the top 10.

Scatterbranch Marketing found a 3.2x citation boost for businesses with schema markup. Adding LocalBusiness schema to these answer-shaped pages compounds the advantage: the content answers the question, and the structured data confirms the business entity.

What to Do This Week

  1. Run a free AI visibility audit to see whether the business appears in AI Overviews for its service area
  2. Identify the 10 most common questions homeowners ask about the trade in the specific service area (not generic industry questions, but location-specific ones)
  3. Write one answer-shaped page per question with LocalBusiness schema (see the step-by-step schema guide)
  4. Record a 3-minute YouTube video for the most important question and embed it on the page
  5. Check whether existing pages rank in AI Overviews using Google Search Console's Gen AI reports (see the Search Console AI reports guide for setup instructions)

The contractors who build answer-shaped content now are creating citation-worthy pages in a system where 62% of AI Overview citations come from outside the top 10. Ranking position matters less than it ever has, and answer quality matters more.

FAQ: AI Overviews Citations Beyond Top 10

What percentage of AI Overview citations come from Google's top 10?

Ahrefs found that 37.1% of AI Overview citations come from pages ranking in Google's organic top 10, as of March 2026. This is down from 76% in July 2025. BrightEdge reported an even lower 17% figure in February 2026 using a different methodology. The trend is consistent across studies: the overlap between top-10 ranking and AI Overview citations is shrinking.

Why do AI Overviews cite pages that do not rank in the top 10?

Google uses a technique called "query fan-out," confirmed in its developer documentation. The system splits the original query into related sub-queries and cites pages that appear across those sub-query SERPs. Gemini 3, which began powering AI Overviews in January 2026, appears to expand queries more aggressively. Pages that answer specific questions in the fan-out chain get cited even if they do not rank for the original head keyword.

Should contractors stop trying to rank in Google's top 10?

No. 38% of AI Overview citations still come from the top 10, and the local pack (Google Maps) still drives the majority of local search traffic. The point is that ranking is no longer the only path to AI visibility. Answer-shaped content that directly addresses specific questions can earn AI Overview citations from outside the top 10.

How does YouTube factor into AI Overview citations?

Ahrefs found that 18.2% of AI Overview citations from outside the top 100 were YouTube URLs, and YouTube is the most cited domain in AI Overviews overall, having grown 34% in six months. A trades business that produces short instructional or demonstration videos on YouTube has a citation advantage over competitors with text-only websites.

How can a trades business get cited in AI Overviews?

Write answer-shaped content that directly addresses specific, location-based questions homeowners ask about the trade. Add LocalBusiness schema to those pages. Complete the Google Business Profile. Produce YouTube content for the most common questions. The combination of answer-shaped pages, structured data, and video gives AI Overviews multiple citation paths to the business.